Where Scottish students are studying – an overview of HESA’s 2022-23 student data

HESA’s student data release in August generated headlines around the balance of Scottish and international students.

To get a solid sense of what’s happening with student numbers by domicile, we need to work across a couple of different data sets. HESA’s student data gives us a (recent) historical picture across all domiciles. The most recent data is for 2022/23 which is time-lagged to nearly two years behind where we are now, with academic year 2024/25 starting next month. Given that delay it’s helpful to calibrate those figures with UCAS data on accepted Scottish applicants for entry this coming September. That tells us (day by day) what is happening right now.

HESA’s data tells there has been a pattern of overall growth in Scottish undergrads at Scottish universities, by 6% over the last five years to 2022/23. The most notable increase maps closely to the two COVID-19 pandemic years of 2020/21 and 2021/22. However, it also points to a one-year drop in Scots in the most recent year it has data for, which also coincides with the first academic year emerging from COVID-19. That’s where UCAS’s data from this week comes in very useful. Its figures from SQA results day on 6 August show record breaking numbers of Scots domiciled students accepting places at Scottish universities with a 0.5% increase of the previous post pandemic high from 2021.

Scotland has seen strong growth in international student numbers over the five-year period to 2022/23. The majority of this growth has been at post graduate level rather than undergraduate. But the HESA data doesn’t give us a full picture there either. A year after HESA’s data set ends, Scotland’s universities experienced major fluctuations in demand from international students and a year of change to student immigration policy, which have thrown real volatility into the numbers. The biggest impact at sector level has hit at postgraduate taught level, which is a direct correlation to the end of the dependents study visa by the former UK Government.

When it come to the balance of Scottish and international students in our universities, particularly at undergraduate level, it is really important to remember that the recruitment of international students has no bearing on the availability of places for Scots. For all that international student numbers have grown, Scots as a percentage of all students at undergraduate level has risen in the five year period that HESA covers. From 70.45% in 2018/19 to 71.16%. That should come as reassurance for anyone concerned about displacement.

HESA data over 5 years at undergraduate level study:

The number of undergraduate places funded by the Scottish Government for Scottish-domiciled students are controlled by the Government and are only available for Scottish students. Universities are fined if the under or over-recruitment beyond a small margin of error. The fact that Scots don’t pay fees for undergraduate study and international students do, has absolutely no bearing on how many Scottish domiciled students are recruited. There is no displacement of Scottish students by international students who choose to study their undergraduate degree in Scotland. The biggest single impact that international students have on Scottish students is beneficial in that the financial support the cost of international tuition helps to cross-subsidise and plug the funding gap caused by the under-funding of every Scottish-domiciled place.

Universities have had far from a steady period of student recruitment since 2019. We have to hope that we’re headed into a period of stability, across all domiciles, going forward.