New data on university students out today for academic year 2023/24 confirms the fall in international numbers as experienced by universities across Scotland and the UK. In total, the number of international (non-EU) students coming to Scotland in 2023/24, compared to the previous year, dropped by just short of 10,000 (9,380).
The sharpest fall amongst international students has occurred at post graduate taught level (masters courses), with a 25.7% sector average year-to-year drop between 22/23 and 23/24.* International undergraduate numbers fell by 3.8% and the average fall in international numbers across all levels of study was 20%. The impact of the drop has been felt differently in different institutions according to their recruitment markets and models of provision.
Responding to the data, Claire McPherson, Director of Universities Scotland said:
“This data catches up with the reality that universities have experienced over the last 18 months; a sudden, sharp fall in international postgraduate taught entrants by 25% on average across the Scottish sector. That sudden fall has flipped the pattern of five years of growth of enrolments on its head.
“The sector average fall of 25% conceals even sharper falls for some institutions, depending on the range of countries they recruit from. Demand from India and Nigeria has fallen, whereas demand from China and North America has remained relatively stable.
“It is both the scale and the suddenness of the fall that has been incredibly challenging for many institutions to manage. Scotland’s model of funding Scottish students and university research has become dangerously reliant on cross-subsidy from international students over the last decade because of chronic underfunding. That puts institutions in a hugely exposed position, as today’s official statistics show for the sector, and for some institutions more acutely than others. This week, the Permanent Secretary confirmed that university finances are high up on the Scottish Government’s risk register. There is a very pressing need for a different kind of strategic conversation with the Scottish Government about short-term stability and long-term solutions for the sustainability of our universities.
“It’s difficult to estimate the sector’s fall in revenue from this but a very rough ballpark would be a loss of around £150 million sector wide, year-to-year.”
NOTES:
The full data set as released by HESA can be found: https://www.hesa.ac.uk/news/08-08-2024/sb269-higher-education-student-statistics/location
*this figure relates to entrant enrolments for international (non-EU, non-UK) students studying postgraduate taught courses in Scotland’s universities.
Prior to academic year 2023/24, the past five years had shown consistent growth in international (non-EU) demand for postgraduate study in Scotland, with entrant enrolment numbers growing steadily (see table 3 in the data release).
Not every higher education institution has experienced a drop in international student numbers across all levels of study.